The chips are down for China

November 25, 2022

~ Alan Dupont, published in the Australian

Forget Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Covid or war in Taiwan. A package of US export restrictions is set to kneecap China.

As the year of living dangerously draws to a volatile close, historians will long debate its most consequential event. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the lingering effects of Covid and fears that China’s president Xi Jinping may unleash war on Taiwan are prime candidates. But a package of US export restrictions that aims to kneecap China’s burgeoning technology sector threatens to overshadow them all.
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If we went to war, our ammo would not last a week

November 7, 2022

~ Alan Dupont, published in the Australian

Despite the increasingly contentious blame game about who is responsible for the chronic failure to deliver promised defence capabilities on time and on budget, Labor and the Coalition agree that Australia needs a viable defence industry.

Yet Australian industry participation in major defence projects has declined significantly since the last of our locally built Anzac-class frigates was christened in 2008. Labor and the Coalition have talked a good game but seldom walked the walk.
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Radio National: Defence spend to skyrocket

October 15, 2022

Can Australia afford the big spend defence commitments from AUKUS? If so, can we ensure delivery in a timely manner?

Listen here.


Dr Alan Dupont, Defence Analyst
Retired Major-General Gus McLachlan, Senior Adviser at Bondi Partners
Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program.

Presentation to Arrive Wealth Management Clients

October 6, 2022

Presentation background from Active Wealth Management:

When constructing investment portfolios for our clients, we think differently. We use a multi-factor approach to ensure we are looking at the bigger picture – market dynamics, economics and geopolitical events – important elements that all contribute to building efficient portfolios and driving returns.

That’s why we invited Dr. Alan Dupont, one of Australia’s best-known strategists and founder of geopolitical risk consultancy firm, the Cognoscenti Group, and international banking expert Felix Stephen to speak to our clients about the new geoeconomic puzzle that is emerging as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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Defence gets ready for thefight of our lives

October 1, 2022

In March next year, the Albanese government will consider the recommendations of the most important defence review in a generation, with an interim report due on November 1 this year. The strategic review will shape the structure, capabilities and posture of the Australian Defence Force for the next decade and “outline funding needs” that could reach nearly half a trillion dollars, depending on the cost of our nuclear-powered submarines.

The key question to be answered is whether the ADF is fit for purpose. If not, whatcan be done to fix the force, how much time do we have, what is the threat, how serious is it and what strategy will we employ to defend ourselves?
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Best way to avoid war is to arm Taiwan

September 8, 2022

Our Taiwan debate has been marred by two misperceptions and one fallacy.The first misperception is that war over Taiwan is improbable. This proposition is harder to sustain as Beijing continues to ratchet up pressure on Taipei.

Flying drones over small islands controlled by Taiwan is the latest in a long line of Chinese provocations and another step on the ladder of escalation that significantlyincreases the risk of military conflict.

Taipei has been remarkably restrained until now. But the administration of Tsai Ing-wen couldn’t allow the drones to fly uncontested over its territory without challenge. Its four-step response protocols have been measured: fire warning flares,report the incursion, expel the drone and shoot it down only as a last resort.
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A Foreign Affair: Radio National

August 6, 2022

After decades of peace, how ready are defence forces in the developed world for war? Australia’s defence minister has announced the most comprehensive strategic review of our defence force in 35 years. This week we dive deep into the challenges that militaries like ours are facing as security threats ramp up. What needs to be done and can it be done quickly?

Alan Dupont, veteran defence analyst
Allan Behm, Director of the International and Security Affairs Program, The Australia Institute
Melissa Conley-Tyler, Program Lead, the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue.
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China can already control most of our region

July 1, 2022

NATO’s game-changing commitment to boost high-readiness ­forces will transform the European balance of power. The opposite is occurring here.

NATO’s new strategic roadmap is a game changer. Once a strategic partner, Russia is now considered the main threat to the expanding alliance. Equally important is the belated recognition of China as a strategic challenge to the alliance’s “interests, security and values”. The commitment to boost military spending and bolster its high-readiness forces from 40,000 to “well over 300,000” will tilt the European balance of power in favour of democracies. But the opposite is occurring in our strategic neighbourhood, where maritime power will be decisive.
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China’s Pacific roadshow our biggest test since Japan in WWII

June 2, 2022

Despite the rejection of his ambitious trade and security deal by Pacific Islands leaders, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s diplomatic road show underlines the strategic nature of Beijing’s unprecedented investment in the South Pacific and the extent of the challenge to our economic and security interests.
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