Europe

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 19th November, 2024

Despite Donald Trump’s boast to end the war in Ukraine in a day, the end game is not in sight. But it’s nearing a critical inflexion point. President Volodymyr Zelensky will come under heavy pressure from the newly elected Trump administration to reach a settlement with Moscow. But if he’s backed into a corner the risk is that Zelensky could literally go nuclear, opting to develop nuclear weapons of his own – the ultimate security guarantee.

Contrary to the view of the parochially minded, the outcome of the Ukraine conflict will have global consequences. And Australia won’t be immune. A Vladimir Putin win will encourage his expansionist impulses in Asia, as well as Europe, strengthen the axis of autocrats, enervate the democracies and promote a deals-based order where the strong do what they will and the rest of us have to roll with the punches.
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~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 19 March, 2024.

Europe has underinvested in defence since the end of the ColdWar, free-riding off the US. This is about political will, not capacity.

The war in Ukraine has reached a tipping point. Despite recent tactical gains and successful drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure Kyiv’s prospects look increasingly bleak, not for want of courage or commitment by the undermanned and underarmed Ukrainian armed forces.
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