~ Alan Dupont, The Australian
A few weeks after the explosions that ripped through the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea last September, a Russian spy ship was tracked and intercepted by the Dutch coastguard near a wind farm in The Netherlands’ territorial waters. Although the jury is still out on who was responsible for the explosions, Western intelligence is in no doubt that Russia has been systematically mapping Europe’s extensive subsea infrastructure.
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~ Alan Dupont, The Australian
Former foreign minister Bob Carr asserts in the opinion pages of this newspaperthat Australia should not get involved in a conflict over Taiwan.He writes that “loose war talk over Taiwan” risks “sleepwalking”
the world towards“the first war between nuclear powers”. The answer is “more spirited diplomacy”, guard rails and off-ramps.
A Taiwan that resembles Hong Kong would be preferable to a nuclear war and ourdefence force wouldn’t last long in a fight with China. The Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen recently wrote in Inquirer that acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and allowing US bombers to operate from the Tindalair base in the Northern Territory effectively integrates Tindal “into America’s war planning” and makes us a bigger target. This calls into question the security benefitsof the alliance.
These are serious critiques that deserve a response. Let’s start with a fact check.
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Russia’s brazen attempt to force Ukraine into submission by threatening its territory and freedoms must be resisted.
If Russian President Vladimir Putin successfully imposes his will on an independent nation by force of arms or a manufactured political coup then the sovereignty of all nations is jeopardised. It would validate the use of coercive power, encourage dictators around the world, destabilise Europe, trigger another refugee crisis and send financial markets into free fall. And you can kiss goodbye to what remains of the rules-based order.
That’s why Ukraine matters for Australia.
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The real conflict between east and west is being fought with money, not guns. So why hasn’t China been able to dethrone the almighty dollar?
“Money makes the world go around” sang the incomparable chanteuse Liza Minnelli in her 1972 musical film hit Cabaret. The founder of the storied Rothschild banking dynasty said much the same thing nearly two centuries earlier but in words that have profoundly shaped the structure and power realities of the international financial system. “Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws,” opined Mayer Anselm Rothschild in 1790, a year before the establishment of the First Bank of the United States.
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There’s a seminal shift underway in Australia’s relationship with the US based on mutual need and Morrison’s determination to act more forcefully.
Originally published in The Australian.
In a historic geopolitical shift, Australia is emerging as a key alliance hub and partner for the US in Asia as the Biden administration moves to reshape and strengthen its military to meet China’s growing challenge.
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Originally published at The Australian
Uniting democracies in defence of shared interests and values will be the cornerstone of US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, showcased by his ambitious Summit for Democracy, to be held later this year. Biden wants the gathering to “bring together the world’s democracies to strengthen our democratic institutions, honestly confront nations that are backsliding, and forge a common agenda”. Read more
Does Donald Trump’s act of constitutional vandalism in inciting mob violence presage an end to America’s greatness or the rebirth of a country that has lost its way? After last week’s unprecedented scenes of mayhem and wanton destruction in Washington’s Capitol building, the notion of a rebirth seems far-fetched. Worse could follow in the waning days of his presidency if Trump gives full vent to his vindictive nature by inflaming his hardcore supporters or initiating an international crisis. Without bipartisan support, impeachment risks turning Trump into a martyr and further polarising the electorate.
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This year will go down as the century’s worst if measured by the disruption, misery and strife that has marked the Year of the Rat. There seems no end in sight to the cascading series of crises afflicting millions of people around the world. Even those with no religious bent must wonder whether the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse have been let loose as drought, wildfires, hurricanes, floods and pestilence continue to wreak havoc. Read more
“The difference between this cold war and the last one is the alignment and bifurcation are a lot more fluid,” said Alan Dupont, a leading Australian security strategist. “It’s a far more interdependent world now, and a lot of countries will not be in a single bloc. They’ll want to straddle both.”
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Alan Dupont has contributed the chapter, ‘ANZUS and Taiwan’ in Patrick Walters (ed.), ANZUS at 70: The past, present and future of the alliance, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, August 2021.