The A to Xi of Trump’s tariffs – what a global tradewar might mean

February 1, 2025

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 1st February, 2025.

Donald Trump campaigned as the Tariff Man. All indications are that as president he intends to deliver on his promise to introduce sweeping tariffs on imports into the United States. Trump has announced plans to levy duties on China, Canada and Mexico on 1 February and he signed an executive order on the first day of his new administration directing officials to conduct a thorough review of US trade policy. Another review will examine the US industrial and manufacturing base to assess whether further national security tariffs are warranted.

When his political epitaph is written, will Trump be remembered as the US president who initiated a trade war, caused a global recession and destroyed the last vestiges of a waning international order crafted and policed by his thirteen post-World War 2 predecessors? Or are his threats to impose punitive tariffs a justifiable attempt to level the playing field of an unfair international trading system gamed by a mercantilist China? Read more

America needs us as much as we need America

December 7, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 7th December, 2024

In a resounding endorsement of closer defence co-operation with Australia, departing US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has described AUKUS “as one of the most ambitious defence projects in modern history” and Australia as a key ally in America’s global strategy to deter future conflicts in an increasingly uncertain world.

In a valedictory speech to a Washington-based think tank, Sullivan provides revealing insights into the reasons for the pivotal shift in US strategic policy from a peacetime footing to preparing for a potential military conflict with China – a war the US doesn’t want but must be prepared to win should deterrence fail.
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Bring out the big guns in defence of AUKUS project

August 23, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 23rd August, 2024

Three years after Scott Morrison announced AUKUS, stunning the nation with its audacity and scope, the passing of two milestones this month served only to raise doubts about the pact’s viability, cost and political longevity as the Biden presidency concludes.

The first milestone was the signing and tabling in federal parliament of a 50-year treaty governing naval nuclear propulsion co-operation central to the ambitious plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines from the US and Britain. The second was an announcement by the US State Department that Australia, the US and Britain have comparable export control regimes, billed as an important first step in setting the rules of the road for AUKUS implementation.
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Tough on China? Remember Trump only has one true allegiance

August 7, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 7th August, 2024

The presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could be the most critical for the US and the world since the 1940 re-election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt decisively altered the outcome of World War 2 in favour of the democracies.

As the polls tighten Harris has a pathway to victory. But the odds still favour Donald Trump despite his crass and counter-productive attacks on Harris’s racial identity. Although his persona is well established – has anyone not heard of the man? – his unique capacity to polarise opinion has blinded many of his critics and admirers to what Trump does, as distinct from what he says.
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US and China wage cable war deep beneath the waves

July 27, 2023

~ Alan Dupont, The Australian

A few weeks after the explosions that ripped through the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea last September, a Russian spy ship was tracked and intercepted by the Dutch coastguard near a wind farm in The Netherlands’ territorial waters. Although the jury is still out on who was responsible for the explosions, Western intelligence is in no doubt that Russia has been systematically mapping Europe’s extensive subsea infrastructure.
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Why the US alliance remains our best defence

July 26, 2023

~ Alan Dupont, The Australian

Former foreign minister Bob Carr asserts in the opinion pages of this newspaperthat Australia should not get involved in a conflict over Taiwan.He writes that “loose war talk over Taiwan” risks “sleepwalking”
the world towards“the first war between nuclear powers”. The answer is “more spirited diplomacy”, guard rails and off-ramps.

A Taiwan that resembles Hong Kong would be preferable to a nuclear war and ourdefence force wouldn’t last long in a fight with China. The Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen recently wrote in Inquirer that acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and allowing US bombers to operate from the Tindalair base in the Northern Territory effectively integrates Tindal “into America’s war planning” and makes us a bigger target. This calls into question the security benefitsof the alliance.

These are serious critiques that deserve a response. Let’s start with a fact check.
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Flexing US muscle over Ukraine best way to deter alpha male Vladimir Putin

January 25, 2022

Russia’s brazen attempt to force Ukraine into submission by threatening its territory and freedoms must be resisted.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin successfully imposes his will on an independent nation by force of arms or a manufactured political coup then the sovereignty of all nations is jeopardised. It would validate the use of coercive power, encourage dictators around the world, destabilise Europe, trigger another refugee crisis and send financial markets into free fall. And you can kiss goodbye to what remains of the rules-based order.

That’s why Ukraine matters for Australia.
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Capital war is a clear and present danger

January 23, 2022

The real conflict between east and west is being fought with money, not guns. So why hasn’t China been able to dethrone the almighty dollar?

“Money makes the world go around” sang the incomparable chanteuse Liza Minnelli in her 1972 musical film hit Cabaret. The founder of the storied Rothschild banking dynasty said much the same thing nearly two centuries earlier but in words that have profoundly shaped the structure and power realities of the international financial system. “Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws,” opined Mayer Anselm Rothschild in 1790, a year before the establishment of the First Bank of the United States.
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China’s threat to the US makes us a power player

March 12, 2021

There’s a seminal shift underway in Australia’s relationship with the US based on mutual need and Morrison’s determination to act more forcefully.
Originally published in The Australian.

In a historic geopolitical shift, ­Australia is emerging as a key ­alliance hub and partner for the US in Asia as the Biden administration moves to reshape and strengthen its military to meet China’s growing challenge.
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