The fight with China over the Darwin Port

July 21, 2025

A decade ago, a Chinese company was given the green light to take control of the Darwin port, which is key Australian infrastructure. Now, the Albanese Government is scrambling to get it back in Australian hands, in a move that risks antagonising China, while being welcomed by the United States.

Today, veteran defence analyst Alan Dupont, who until recently was the Defence and National Security Advocate for the Northern Territory Government, focused on defence investment in the NT. He explains why the deal was allowed in the first place and whether Chinese control really poses a risk to national security.

Listen to the podcast.

Featured: Alan Dupont, chief executive of geopolitical risk consultancy The Cognoscenti Group

In a tougher, more dangerous world, the US remains our best option

July 18, 2025

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 18th July, 2025.

Contrasting the bonhomie of Anthony Albanese’s visit to China with his less than effusive embrace of Donald Trump’s America, an intergalactic visitor could be forgiven for concluding that China, not the US, is our principal ally and closest friend.

Seldom has the tension between our security alliance with the US and our trade relationship with China been so starkly exposed. The optics are damning. While the Prime Minister talks enthusiastically about increasing trade, tourism and cultural contacts, his words are jarringly at odds with the unwelcome presence of Chinese naval ships monitoring the Australian and allied Talisman Sabre training exercise off the Queensland coast.
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Tough on China? Remember Trump only has one true allegiance

August 7, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 7th August, 2024

The presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could be the most critical for the US and the world since the 1940 re-election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt decisively altered the outcome of World War 2 in favour of the democracies.

As the polls tighten Harris has a pathway to victory. But the odds still favour Donald Trump despite his crass and counter-productive attacks on Harris’s racial identity. Although his persona is well established – has anyone not heard of the man? – his unique capacity to polarise opinion has blinded many of his critics and admirers to what Trump does, as distinct from what he says.
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US and China wage cable war deep beneath the waves

July 27, 2023

~ Alan Dupont, The Australian

A few weeks after the explosions that ripped through the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea last September, a Russian spy ship was tracked and intercepted by the Dutch coastguard near a wind farm in The Netherlands’ territorial waters. Although the jury is still out on who was responsible for the explosions, Western intelligence is in no doubt that Russia has been systematically mapping Europe’s extensive subsea infrastructure.
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It’s time to raise the stakes in critical minerals contest

May 2, 2023

~ Alan Dupont

As the fossil fuel era fades, critical minerals are set to become the new oil. If not yet ubiquitous, they are the sinews of the emerging green and hi-tech economies.

They are also crucial for defence because they “power the weapons that determine geopolitical primacy”, says security analyst Liam Gibson. Defence needs rare earths for a vast array of applications, including smart bombs, radar, communication systems and advanced fighter aircraft.

This means that they are a strategic asset as well as an economic resource. Only a few minerals have played this role historically.

Silver needed for coinage in ancient times and oil, which still lubricates the wheels of transport and industry, are among them.

The problem for the world is that China has cornered the market in critical minerals, especially the 17 rare earths that are processed into high-value tech metals.
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Balance of power in Asia now shifting away from China

March 2, 2023

~ Alan Dupont

The galvanising impact of the war in Ukraine is not confined to Europe.

It is having an equally transformative effect on the security of our own region. “Ukraine today may be Asia tomorrow” is the new catchcry as countries reassess their vulnerabilities and the adequacy of their defence spending and security partnerships.

Overstretched and anxious to avoid being drawn into a Ukrainian quagmire, the Biden administration is keeping a watchful eye on its pacing challenger, mindful that China would like nothing more than to see the US bogged down in a protracted European conflict. Relentlessly focused on Asia, Beijing has been able to bide its time and build its forces while the US continues to be distracted by the polycrisis – multiple, interconnected global challenges that require its leadership and unique deterrent power.
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The chips are down for China

November 25, 2022

~ Alan Dupont, published in the Australian

Forget Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Covid or war in Taiwan. A package of US export restrictions is set to kneecap China.

As the year of living dangerously draws to a volatile close, historians will long debate its most consequential event. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the lingering effects of Covid and fears that China’s president Xi Jinping may unleash war on Taiwan are prime candidates. But a package of US export restrictions that aims to kneecap China’s burgeoning technology sector threatens to overshadow them all.
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Best way to avoid war is to arm Taiwan

September 8, 2022

Our Taiwan debate has been marred by two misperceptions and one fallacy.The first misperception is that war over Taiwan is improbable. This proposition is harder to sustain as Beijing continues to ratchet up pressure on Taipei.

Flying drones over small islands controlled by Taiwan is the latest in a long line of Chinese provocations and another step on the ladder of escalation that significantlyincreases the risk of military conflict.

Taipei has been remarkably restrained until now. But the administration of Tsai Ing-wen couldn’t allow the drones to fly uncontested over its territory without challenge. Its four-step response protocols have been measured: fire warning flares,report the incursion, expel the drone and shoot it down only as a last resort.
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