China’s Pacific challenge: a chain of credit colonies

September 4, 2018

“That China might build a port with military capabilities on Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island may be the Morrison government’s first serious foreign policy test and should be raised by Foreign Minister Marise Payne at this week’s ­Pacific Islands Forum in Nauru.

Manus Island commands the northern approaches to Australia. It would be a high-value acquisition for the Chinese military, greatly extending its reach into the southwest Pacific Read more

Erdogan’s Dilemmas

September 1, 2018

Turkey Faces Few Good Options as Idlib offensive looms

Syrian regime and Russian forces are currently preparing for an offensive into Idlib Province in north west Syria. The attack on Idlib is set to mark the final major action in the war between the Assad regime and the insurgency against it.Moscow has moved 10 warships and two submarines into the waters off the western coast of Syria.  This represents the largest concentration of Russian  naval forces since the beginning of Moscow’s direct intervention into the civil war in Syria in September, 2015. Read more

Egypt’s new media law is ahead of the curve

July 26, 2018

Last week, Egypt’s parliament passed three new media laws allowing the presidentially appointed Supreme Council of Media to monitor and “supervise” users with more than 5000 followers on social media platforms.

The new laws were ostensibly passed in order to curb disinformation, or “fake news” to use the Trumpian parlance of the times, by blocking and referring individuals who spread false reports through their social media accounts for prosecution. The new laws also allow for people to be detained pending trial. Read more

Voters have had it with uncontrolled migration

June 27, 2018

Large-scale immigration, so long the hallmark of successful cosmopolitan societies in the developed West, threatens to fracture democracies in the old and new worlds. Across Europe and North America rising anti-immigration sentiment, driven by the number of asylum-seekers and undocumented labour migrants, is exacerbating divisions over identity, values and national security.
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Gloves off in US pushback against China

June 2, 2018

In the unceasing competition between the great powers, this century’s dominant economic and foreign policy story has been China’s breathtaking rise from relative obscurity to the threshold of superpower status.

The accompanying narrative, which has become conventional wisdom in Australia and much of the world, is that the US is in decline and soon will be surpassed by an ascendant and economically irresistible China.
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Competing with China

June 1, 2018

The United States and China are separated not only by divergent interests, some of which might be reconciled, but by incompatible visions for the future of Asia and the world.

There appears to be a growing consensus in Washington, and in the capitals of many other advanced industrial democracies, that prevailing policies towards China have failed and that an alternative approach is now urgently required.  Read more

Decay and new growth

April 30, 2018

In his latest Lowy Institute Paper, Remaking the Middle East, Anthony Bubalo deftly weaves together the various threads that have made and unmade the modern Middle East, positing that the 2011 Arab uprisings were not brought about by individual conflicts, trends, or political actors, but rather were the most ostentatious representation of the decay of the entire nizam, or sociopolitical system of the region. Read more

A Foreign Affair: North Korea, Syria, Hungary and France

April 28, 2018

Gorana Grgic, Alan Dupont, and Jonathan Pearlman join Geraldine Doogue to discuss the developments and set backs in foreign affairs for the month of April.

Topics covered are the North Korea Summit’s, the Syrian airstrikes; the Hungarian election and French President Emmanuel Macron addressing the European Parliament. Read more

Korean summit between Kim and Moon crucial to peace

April 20, 2018

The next act in the immensely consequential decades-long Korean nuclear drama takes place on Friday, when the two Koreas launch their much-anticipated summit in the tiny Potemkin village of Panmunjom that straddles the demarcation line separating the divided nation.

The stakes could not be higher. A successful Korean summit is an essential prerequisite and road map for an even more important summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. Read more