Defence

~ By Robbin Laird. Originally published at SLDinfo.com

In an earlier discussion with David Beaumont, I focused on the challenge facing the ADF of managing what I called the strategic triangle for force enablement.

That triangle is conceptualized in the featured graphic for this article. At the core of the triangle is the challenge of sustainability, the provision of supplies, magazine depth and what can produced by the allied arsenal of democracy.

At the 28 March 2023 Williams Foundation Seminar, Dr. Dupont looked at the sustainability challenge as understood in terms of the capabilities of the defence industrial base. He provided an assessment of the significant limitations facing the Western industrial base to support sustainable defense forces which could endure through a significant period of conflict.
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~ Alan Dupont

Shrewdly timed to coincide with Anzac Day commemorations, the Albanese government has taken a major step forward in delivering on its promise to make the ADF a more “impactful” force, with the much-anticipated release of its response to the Defence Strategic Review. This sends an unambiguous signal to potential adversaries that while Australia is committed to preserving the peace, we won’t be a pushover if it comes to a fight.

The ADF is now set on a path of transformation – from a boutique force with niche capabilities but little punch to a harder, more lethal, self-reliant military that is also more interoperable with allies and friends. Higher levels of interoperability will be crucial to offset the advantages that autocracies have in their ability to mobilise resources and prosecute the untrammelled ambitions of their rulers.
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Nothing less than a revolution in our approach is going to solve a problem that threatens to derail the ambitious nuclear submarine program and the ADF restructure.
~ Alan Dupont

The magnitude of the nuclear submarine challenge should not obscure a wider strategic problem. Our defence industrial base is so thin and under-resourced that we are at serious risk of losing a high-intensity military conflict within a few weeks against a well-prepared adversary.

Tinkering at the edges won’t make any difference. Nothing less than a revolution in our approach to defence industry, innovation and weapons acquisition is going to solve a problem that threatens to derail the ambitious nuclear submarine program and the Albanese government’s restructure of the Australian Defence Force.

This is a strategic failure long in the making. And it’s not just an issue for Australia. The US defence industrial base is in serious trouble and Europe’s is on life support. Their problems are also ours since most of our military equipment is imported from the US or Europe.
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~ Alan Dupont, published in the Australian

War concentrates the mind like few other activities, so it’s not surprising that the Ukraine-Russia conflict is generating widespread media coverage of the combat power of the two protagonists.

Far from being a morbid fascination with the weapons of war, the debates they stimulate are critical to the functioning of a healthy democracy. Democracies that fail to gain public support for essential defence projects and policies are unlikely to be victorious on the battlefield.
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~ Alan Dupont, published in the Australian

Despite the increasingly contentious blame game about who is responsible for the chronic failure to deliver promised defence capabilities on time and on budget, Labor and the Coalition agree that Australia needs a viable defence industry.

Yet Australian industry participation in major defence projects has declined significantly since the last of our locally built Anzac-class frigates was christened in 2008. Labor and the Coalition have talked a good game but seldom walked the walk.
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Can Australia afford the big spend defence commitments from AUKUS? If so, can we ensure delivery in a timely manner?

Listen here.

Guests:

Dr Alan Dupont, Defence Analyst
Retired Major-General Gus McLachlan, Senior Adviser at Bondi Partners
Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program.

The Morrison government’s groundbreaking AUKUS agreement has the potential to accelerate the transformation of the Northern Territory from strategic backwater to vital alliance hub.

It won’t be realised without an integrated plan to leverage increased investment in the Territory’s defence infrastructure to strengthen allied capacity and reach.
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The Group of Seven meeting in Cornwall may well be a turning point in the democratic push back against China’s competing brand of assertive authoritarianism.

Having the US, Japan and the big European democracies on board will provide much needed moral and practical support for Scott Morrison’s determination to resist Beijing’s economic and diplomatic coercion.
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