Defence

Dr Alan Dupont presented in Panel 4 at Sovereign and Security Forum on Monday 31st March, 2025.

How can Australia pursue its national interest in a “might is right” world? Can we save the multilateral furniture? Can we work with other countries to mitigate the economic damage from Trump’s tariff war? Is CPTPP a model for the future?

Listen to the recording here.

I believe the Trump ascendancy presages a radical change in Washington’s approach to the US alliance.

Mutual trust, shared interests and values have little or diminished weight. Trump, the dealmaker, doesn’t distinguish between friends and foes. This means the major beneficiaries of his second coming are more likely to be autocratic challengers, who have no love for America, at the expense of traditional friends and allies, who are being treated with disdain.
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~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 11 May, 2024.

The Gaza conflict is teetering on the brink of a messy and bloody climax. Israel’s decision to seize and bomb the border crossing into the southern city of Rafah, the last redoubt of Hamas, seems like another chapter in the grim annals of war – soldiers slugging it out in grinding, destructive battles that kill thousands of innocent civilians and destroy whole cities.

But a surprising number of decision-makers and military experts believe that wars are being revolutionised by technology, reducing the need for boots on the ground as machines take over in proxy, sanitised contests.
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~ By Robbin Laird. Originally published at SLDinfo.com

In an earlier discussion with David Beaumont, I focused on the challenge facing the ADF of managing what I called the strategic triangle for force enablement.

That triangle is conceptualized in the featured graphic for this article. At the core of the triangle is the challenge of sustainability, the provision of supplies, magazine depth and what can produced by the allied arsenal of democracy.

At the 28 March 2023 Williams Foundation Seminar, Dr. Dupont looked at the sustainability challenge as understood in terms of the capabilities of the defence industrial base. He provided an assessment of the significant limitations facing the Western industrial base to support sustainable defense forces which could endure through a significant period of conflict.
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~ Alan Dupont

Shrewdly timed to coincide with Anzac Day commemorations, the Albanese government has taken a major step forward in delivering on its promise to make the ADF a more “impactful” force, with the much-anticipated release of its response to the Defence Strategic Review. This sends an unambiguous signal to potential adversaries that while Australia is committed to preserving the peace, we won’t be a pushover if it comes to a fight.

The ADF is now set on a path of transformation – from a boutique force with niche capabilities but little punch to a harder, more lethal, self-reliant military that is also more interoperable with allies and friends. Higher levels of interoperability will be crucial to offset the advantages that autocracies have in their ability to mobilise resources and prosecute the untrammelled ambitions of their rulers.
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Nothing less than a revolution in our approach is going to solve a problem that threatens to derail the ambitious nuclear submarine program and the ADF restructure.
~ Alan Dupont

The magnitude of the nuclear submarine challenge should not obscure a wider strategic problem. Our defence industrial base is so thin and under-resourced that we are at serious risk of losing a high-intensity military conflict within a few weeks against a well-prepared adversary.

Tinkering at the edges won’t make any difference. Nothing less than a revolution in our approach to defence industry, innovation and weapons acquisition is going to solve a problem that threatens to derail the ambitious nuclear submarine program and the Albanese government’s restructure of the Australian Defence Force.

This is a strategic failure long in the making. And it’s not just an issue for Australia. The US defence industrial base is in serious trouble and Europe’s is on life support. Their problems are also ours since most of our military equipment is imported from the US or Europe.
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~ Alan Dupont, published in the Australian

War concentrates the mind like few other activities, so it’s not surprising that the Ukraine-Russia conflict is generating widespread media coverage of the combat power of the two protagonists.

Far from being a morbid fascination with the weapons of war, the debates they stimulate are critical to the functioning of a healthy democracy. Democracies that fail to gain public support for essential defence projects and policies are unlikely to be victorious on the battlefield.
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~ Alan Dupont, published in the Australian

Despite the increasingly contentious blame game about who is responsible for the chronic failure to deliver promised defence capabilities on time and on budget, Labor and the Coalition agree that Australia needs a viable defence industry.

Yet Australian industry participation in major defence projects has declined significantly since the last of our locally built Anzac-class frigates was christened in 2008. Labor and the Coalition have talked a good game but seldom walked the walk.
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