The A to Xi of Trump’s tariffs – what a global tradewar might mean

February 1, 2025

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 1st February, 2025.

Donald Trump campaigned as the Tariff Man. All indications are that as president he intends to deliver on his promise to introduce sweeping tariffs on imports into the United States. Trump has announced plans to levy duties on China, Canada and Mexico on 1 February and he signed an executive order on the first day of his new administration directing officials to conduct a thorough review of US trade policy. Another review will examine the US industrial and manufacturing base to assess whether further national security tariffs are warranted.

When his political epitaph is written, will Trump be remembered as the US president who initiated a trade war, caused a global recession and destroyed the last vestiges of a waning international order crafted and policed by his thirteen post-World War 2 predecessors? Or are his threats to impose punitive tariffs a justifiable attempt to level the playing field of an unfair international trading system gamed by a mercantilist China? Read more

America needs us as much as we need America

December 7, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 7th December, 2024

In a resounding endorsement of closer defence co-operation with Australia, departing US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has described AUKUS “as one of the most ambitious defence projects in modern history” and Australia as a key ally in America’s global strategy to deter future conflicts in an increasingly uncertain world.

In a valedictory speech to a Washington-based think tank, Sullivan provides revealing insights into the reasons for the pivotal shift in US strategic policy from a peacetime footing to preparing for a potential military conflict with China – a war the US doesn’t want but must be prepared to win should deterrence fail.
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Zelensky might baulk at any deal and could literally go nuclear

November 19, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 19th November, 2024

Despite Donald Trump’s boast to end the war in Ukraine in a day, the end game is not in sight. But it’s nearing a critical inflexion point. President Volodymyr Zelensky will come under heavy pressure from the newly elected Trump administration to reach a settlement with Moscow. But if he’s backed into a corner the risk is that Zelensky could literally go nuclear, opting to develop nuclear weapons of his own – the ultimate security guarantee.

Contrary to the view of the parochially minded, the outcome of the Ukraine conflict will have global consequences. And Australia won’t be immune. A Vladimir Putin win will encourage his expansionist impulses in Asia, as well as Europe, strengthen the axis of autocrats, enervate the democracies and promote a deals-based order where the strong do what they will and the rest of us have to roll with the punches.
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How soon will AI become better than us?

October 26, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 26th October, 2024

Once the preserve of technology geeks, artificial intelligence has gone mainstream resulting in an explosion of digital and virtual capabilities. These range from the helpful personal assistants on our digital devices and the mapping of more than 160,000 new virus species, to troubling “deep fakes” that are impossible to detect with the naked eye.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT has helped democratise AI but raised many questions about the technology’s value and impact. Will it be genuinely transformational and a boon to society as advocates proclaim boosting productivity, creating undreamed of prosperity and liberating us from life’s drudgeries? Or are the naysayers right – that its promise is over-hyped and the risks potentially catastrophic without guardrails and humans in the loop?
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Warnings as Doomsday Clock edges ever closer to midnight

October 1, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 1st October, 2024

Worried that a nuclear war could pose an existential threat to humankind a group of American researchers, known as the Chicago Atomic Scientists, conceived the idea of a Doomsday Clock in 1947 that would metaphorically measure how close the world is to a global catastrophe.

Many of these scientists had intimate knowledge of the danger of a nuclear war having worked on the development of the Manhattan Project, the top-secret program to make the first atomic bombs during World War II, later popularised in the 2023 film ‘Oppenheimer’.

The clock’s initial setting was 7 minutes to midnight, with midnight representing the moment at which a global catastrophe would occur. In 1991, it was wound back to a reassuring 17 minutes following the signing of the pathbreaking Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the former Soviet Union and the United States when war seemed a distant prospect.
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Bring out the big guns in defence of AUKUS project

August 23, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 23rd August, 2024

Three years after Scott Morrison announced AUKUS, stunning the nation with its audacity and scope, the passing of two milestones this month served only to raise doubts about the pact’s viability, cost and political longevity as the Biden presidency concludes.

The first milestone was the signing and tabling in federal parliament of a 50-year treaty governing naval nuclear propulsion co-operation central to the ambitious plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines from the US and Britain. The second was an announcement by the US State Department that Australia, the US and Britain have comparable export control regimes, billed as an important first step in setting the rules of the road for AUKUS implementation.
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Tough on China? Remember Trump only has one true allegiance

August 7, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 7th August, 2024

The presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could be the most critical for the US and the world since the 1940 re-election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt decisively altered the outcome of World War 2 in favour of the democracies.

As the polls tighten Harris has a pathway to victory. But the odds still favour Donald Trump despite his crass and counter-productive attacks on Harris’s racial identity. Although his persona is well established – has anyone not heard of the man? – his unique capacity to polarise opinion has blinded many of his critics and admirers to what Trump does, as distinct from what he says.
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Future of war not all drones and AI – Soldiers still matter

May 11, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 11 May, 2024.

The Gaza conflict is teetering on the brink of a messy and bloody climax. Israel’s decision to seize and bomb the border crossing into the southern city of Rafah, the last redoubt of Hamas, seems like another chapter in the grim annals of war – soldiers slugging it out in grinding, destructive battles that kill thousands of innocent civilians and destroy whole cities.

But a surprising number of decision-makers and military experts believe that wars are being revolutionised by technology, reducing the need for boots on the ground as machines take over in proxy, sanitised contests.
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The Ukraine war is at a crossroads – it’s time Europe stands up

March 19, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 19 March, 2024.

Europe has underinvested in defence since the end of the ColdWar, free-riding off the US. This is about political will, not capacity.

The war in Ukraine has reached a tipping point. Despite recent tactical gains and successful drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure Kyiv’s prospects look increasingly bleak, not for want of courage or commitment by the undermanned and underarmed Ukrainian armed forces.
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