Future of war not all drones and AI – Soldiers still matter

May 11, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 11 May, 2024.

The Gaza conflict is teetering on the brink of a messy and bloody climax. Israel’s decision to seize and bomb the border crossing into the southern city of Rafah, the last redoubt of Hamas, seems like another chapter in the grim annals of war – soldiers slugging it out in grinding, destructive battles that kill thousands of innocent civilians and destroy whole cities.

But a surprising number of decision-makers and military experts believe that wars are being revolutionised by technology, reducing the need for boots on the ground as machines take over in proxy, sanitised contests.
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The Ukraine war is at a crossroads – it’s time Europe stands up

March 19, 2024

~ by Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 19 March, 2024.

Europe has underinvested in defence since the end of the ColdWar, free-riding off the US. This is about political will, not capacity.

The war in Ukraine has reached a tipping point. Despite recent tactical gains and successful drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure Kyiv’s prospects look increasingly bleak, not for want of courage or commitment by the undermanned and underarmed Ukrainian armed forces.
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A game of high stakes on the high seas

February 2, 2024

~ Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 2 February, 2024.

Awakened from a long, peace-induced slumber, Western countries are scrambling to address their naval ­deficiencies in the face of China’s unprecedented peacetime naval build-up, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and the Houthis’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

But they are starting from a long way back.

Australia is no exception. Our navy’s capabilities have deteriorated alarmingly at a time when the need for sea power has never been greater. More on this later.

The Houthis’ targeting of ships that carried nearly 15 per cent of world trade through the Red Sea last year is the latest example of the growing threat to seaborne trade.
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The long fight to disarm Hamas

January 13, 2024

~ Johnathan Spyer. Originally published in The Australian on 13 January, 2024.

‘We’ve been on the mission from the first day. We were mobilised on October 8,” Col. Tal Kuritzky, commander of the Israel Defence Forces’ 5th Infantry Brigade, tells me. “Our task is to make it possible for the residents of the Gaza envelope to return to their homes. We’re creating a safe area along the border to enable their return. And we’ve struck hard at Hamas’s infrastructure.”

We are sitting, a group of journalists and soldiers, in a house in Khirbet Khuzaia, Khan Yunis Governorate, in the southern part of the Gaza Strip. It is midday but the house is dark, its electricity long ago cut off. Its prior function seems to have been as a religious centre of some kind. Islamic texts and, improbably, a poster of Palestine Liberation Organisation leader Yasser Arafat are strewn around one of the rooms, amid broken glass.
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‘Axis powers’ a formidable force for evil in 2024

January 9, 2024

~ Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 9 January, 2024.

Looking back on 2023, it’s hard to remember a more volatile year geopolitically. But in worrying echoes of the turbulent 1930s, there are signs that 2024 could be worse as the international order continues to unravel.

On November 1, 1936, Italy’s fascist dictator Benito Mussolini gave an impassioned speech to 250,000 fellow Italians. He declared a new friendship with Nazi Germany and a political realignment of the Italian state.

“This Berlin-Rome protocol is not a barrier,” Mussolini said. “It is rather an axis around which all European states animated by a desire for peace may collaborate on troubles.”
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How a modern polycrisis will innovate the future of business

November 22, 2023

Alan joined CEO of Business SA Andrew Kay on the ThirtyNiners Podcast, to discuss the current ploycrisis, and how developing a greater understanding of current and past geopolitical issues, can prepare South Australian businesses for incoming change, and the innovation required to evolve business strategies within this change.

Listen here…

Polycrisis as defined by Alan, is the recognition of multiple ​‘big system’ shaking events that are inevitable key macroeconomic risks facing businesses that inherently influence investment decisions.
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Israel fights terror with one arm tied behind its back

November 18, 2023

~ Alan Dupont. Originally published in the Australian

Should Hamas be free to ignore the rules of international humanitarian law while Israelis are constrained in defending themselves by the laws that are meant to protect them?

The outpouring of pro-Hamas and anti-Jewish sentiment in the Middle East is hardly a surprise given the longstanding animosity between Arab nations and Israel over the intertwined issues of a Palestinian state and Israel’s right to exist.
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Labor’s hard-won security credentials hang in the balance

October 30, 2023

~ Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 30 October, 2023.

As security challenges mount, it’s politically untenable and strategically irresponsible for the Albanese government to maintain defence spending at just 2 per cent of gross domestic product.

In the six months since Defence Minister Richard Marles declared that Australia faced the most challenging set of strategic circumstances since World War II, a “polycrisis” of cascading, interconnected threats has worsened with the addition of the Middle East to the lengthening list of global flashpoints. The start of Israel’s much anticipated ground offensive doesn’t augur well for a speedy settlement of one the world’s most intractable conflicts.
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Tehran makes its move in a long, deadly game

October 26, 2023

~ Johnathan Spyer. Originally published in The Australian on 26 October, 2023.

Israeli forces are completing the final stages of preparation before the start of a ground offensive into Gaza. The goal of this offensive, according to statements by senior Israeli officials, will be to put an end to 16 years of Hamas rule over this area.

But even as the world’s attention remains focused on the narrow and dusty strip to Israel’s southwest, a far larger and potentially more consequential mobilisation is taking place across the Middle East.

From Lebanon to Yemen, via Syria and Iraq, the Iran-led regional axis of which Hamas is only a minor element is moving into position.
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