Reality matters in Middle East, not Trump’s Jerusalem symbolism

December 16, 2017

JONATHAN SPYER, The Australian, December 16, 2017

The Jerusalem neighbourhood in which I live, on the seam line dividing Jew and Arab, can be a useful place to take the temperature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In 2015 a wave of stabbing ­attacks against Israelis and Jews began. This was the result of a campaign of incitement by Islamist groups, according to which the government of Israel planned to change the status quo regarding the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif. Jewish prayer is forbidden on the Mount. The rumours held that this was set to change. Wilder notions of plans to replace the mosques with a rebuilt Jewish temple also were repeated. Read more

Bagdad and Tehran’s Goal: The Destruction of Kurdistan

October 28, 2017

The advance of the Iran-supported Iraqi government and paramilitary forces against their Kurdish opponents moved forward this week.

The Kurdish Regional Government, in a statement issued on the morning of October 25, offered to “freeze” the results of the referendum on independence conducted on September 25, in light of what it called the “grave and dangerous circumstances” currently prevailing. Read more

Israel Is Going to War in Syria to Fight Iran

September 28, 2017

JERUSALEM – Israeli officials believe that Iran is winning its bid for dominance in the Middle East, and they are mobilizing to counter the regional realignment that threatens to follow. The focus of Israel’s military and diplomatic campaign is Syria. Israeli jets have struck Hezbollah and Syrian regime facilities and convoys dozens of times during Syria’s civil war, with the goal of preventing the transfer of weapons systems from Iran to Hezbollah. In an apparent broadening of the scope of this air campaign, on Sept. 7 Israeli jets struck a Syrian weapons facility near Masyaf responsible for the production of chemical weapons and the storing of surface-to-surface missiles. Read more

Islamist violence in Marawi City a potential threat to Indonesia

July 9, 2017

The raising of so-called Islamic State’s black flag in a province that long has had a reputation for sectarian violence and Muslim resentment towards the central government in Manila has come as a rude shock to President Rodrigo Duterte, the maverick Philippine leader who prides himself on his tough approach to law and order. But it is also a wake-up call for Australia and the region.
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Australia Joins Philippines’ Fight Against Islamic State-Linked Militants

June 23, 2017

“It’s pretty clear they’re trying to emulate what ISIS has done in the Middle East,” said Alan Dupont, a strategic analyst at the Lowy Institute, a foreign-policy think tank in Sydney. “Marawi would be a magnet for disaffected people in Southeast Asia, including in Australia.” Australia has more at stake in the Philippines conflict than the U.S., Dr. Dupont added, because it is much closer.
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US attacks on Syria

April 8, 2017

When President Trump came to office, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was seen as a useful ally in the fight against so-called Islamic State. All talk of regime change stopped.

Rarely has a foreign policy changed so radically, so quickly and been acted on so decisively. Read more

U.S. Strikes on Syria Put Xi in Tough Position for Trump Meeting

April 7, 2017

“Xi can’t fail to be impressed by Trump’s resolve,” said Alan Dupont, an Australian military analyst who worked for that country’s Defense Department. “Xi will have to reassess what the Trump presidency means for Chinese interests in East Asia, particularly North Korea and the South China Sea.” Read more

Reporting from the front line in the battle for Mosul

February 11, 2017

The neighbourhood of Hay al-Arabi in eastern Mosul city has the appearance of a place recently visited by apocalypse. This was one of the last areas east of the Tigris River vacated by the Islamic State organisation, before the advance of the Iraqi armed forces in late January. Read more

After the Fall of Aleppo

December 16, 2016

The battle for Aleppo is over.  The Assad regime and its Russian, Iranian and Shia paramilitary allies have achieved victory.

The process of evacuation of civilians and rebels is yet to be completed.  Syrian oppositionists are alleging that pro-regime militias are committing atrocities in the conquered areas.  Read more

Iranian Kurds Join the Fight

December 15, 2016

The instability that has swept over the Middle East over the past half-decade has its winners and its losers. For the most part, the much-beleaguered Kurds are to be numbered in the former camp. In Syria, the long-silent Kurdish minority now finds itself allied with U.S. air power and special forces, and controlling a large, de facto autonomous area in the country’s north. Read more