A game of high stakes on the high seas

February 2, 2024

~ Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 2 February, 2024.

Awakened from a long, peace-induced slumber, Western countries are scrambling to address their naval ­deficiencies in the face of China’s unprecedented peacetime naval build-up, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and the Houthis’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

But they are starting from a long way back.

Australia is no exception. Our navy’s capabilities have deteriorated alarmingly at a time when the need for sea power has never been greater. More on this later.

The Houthis’ targeting of ships that carried nearly 15 per cent of world trade through the Red Sea last year is the latest example of the growing threat to seaborne trade.
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‘Axis powers’ a formidable force for evil in 2024

January 9, 2024

~ Alan Dupont. Originally published in The Australian on 9 January, 2024.

Looking back on 2023, it’s hard to remember a more volatile year geopolitically. But in worrying echoes of the turbulent 1930s, there are signs that 2024 could be worse as the international order continues to unravel.

On November 1, 1936, Italy’s fascist dictator Benito Mussolini gave an impassioned speech to 250,000 fellow Italians. He declared a new friendship with Nazi Germany and a political realignment of the Italian state.

“This Berlin-Rome protocol is not a barrier,” Mussolini said. “It is rather an axis around which all European states animated by a desire for peace may collaborate on troubles.”
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Dr. Alan Dupont AO: The End of History and the Polycrisis (Lonsec Symposium, 2023)

May 4, 2023

Prominent American political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, thought the end of the Cold-War marked the end of ideological conflict. But history has come roaring back as ideological divisions divide the world once more and geopolitical risk escalates. The world is facing a polycrisis. Multiple systemic disturbances – from the Ukraine conflict to rising US-China tensions, accelerating deglobalization and a high stakes tech war – are creating the most volatile, unpredictable and challenging investment environment since World War 2.

~ Keynote presentation at Lonsec Symposium, 4 May 2023 in Sydney.

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The Rise of the Geopolitical Economy and Australian Resilience

December 6, 2022

ACCI’s Business Leaders Summit sessions are underway with members and special guests hearing from Senator the Hon. Tim Ayres, Senator the Hon. Jane Hume, Paul Bloxham (HSBC) and Dr Alan Dupont AO (Cognoscenti) on the topic ‘The Rise of the Geopolitical Economy and Australian Resilience’.

Focusing on current trends in the geopolitical environment, the panellists are tackling how Australia is enhancing its resilience during this challenging time for global economics. This session was moderated by ACCI’s Chief of Policy and Advocacy, David Alexander.
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Presentation to Arrive Wealth Management Clients

October 6, 2022

Presentation background from Active Wealth Management:

When constructing investment portfolios for our clients, we think differently. We use a multi-factor approach to ensure we are looking at the bigger picture – market dynamics, economics and geopolitical events – important elements that all contribute to building efficient portfolios and driving returns.

That’s why we invited Dr. Alan Dupont, one of Australia’s best-known strategists and founder of geopolitical risk consultancy firm, the Cognoscenti Group, and international banking expert Felix Stephen to speak to our clients about the new geoeconomic puzzle that is emerging as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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The second age of globalisation is beginning to buckle

May 7, 2022

The ripple effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war are spreading and intensifying. Deglobalisation will jeopardise the prosperity and welfare of millions.

The ripple effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war are spreading and intensifying. Their impact is being felt in almost every corner of the globe, revealing an international system under duress.

The US-led rules-based order has survived and prospered for 77 years through numerous regional conflicts, terrorist outrages and economic shocks. But this time it’s different. Although not the sole cause, the Ukraine conflict is driving a once-in-a-century redesign of the world’s economic and geopolitical plumbing.
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Time for West to take off the gloves

March 16, 2022

In his vainglorious march to conquest, Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to bomb Ukraine back to the Stone Age. He is deliberately and criminally targeting civilians with vacuum, cluster and phosphorus munitions to break
Ukrainian morale in flagrant violation of international humanitarian law. Chemical and biological weapons may be next. They are weapons of mass destruction.

Putin’s war of liberation is turning into a war of obliteration. It must be stopped to save lives, maintain Ukraine’s sovereignty, uphold democracy, and prevent eastern Europe and the Baltic States from disappearing behind another iron curtain.
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West must inflict a hammer blow to Russia’s economy

February 28, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shattered three stultifying illusions and delivered a rude wake-up call to a complacent and self-obsessed West. Vladimir Putin’s game-changing aggression will lead to a hardening of the systemic divide between democracies and autocracies; increased geopolitical risk; higher defence spending; less globalisation; greater financial market volatility; rising inflation driven by surging energy and commodity prices; and a significant push by Europe to diversify its energy supplies away from Russia.
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New world order: momentum is shifting in favour of dictators

February 10, 2018

Are Russia and China deliberately undermining democracies in order to replace the Western-led liberal international order with their own authoritarian model? This is the central claim by the recently released US defence strategy, the most important in a generation. And it’s a belief that is driving the Turnbull government’s tougher response to foreign interference. Read more