Defence gets ready for thefight of our lives

October 1, 2022

In March next year, the Albanese government will consider the recommendations of the most important defence review in a generation, with an interim report due on November 1 this year. The strategic review will shape the structure, capabilities and posture of the Australian Defence Force for the next decade and “outline funding needs” that could reach nearly half a trillion dollars, depending on the cost of our nuclear-powered submarines.

The key question to be answered is whether the ADF is fit for purpose. If not, whatcan be done to fix the force, how much time do we have, what is the threat, how serious is it and what strategy will we employ to defend ourselves?
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A Foreign Affair: Radio National

August 6, 2022

After decades of peace, how ready are defence forces in the developed world for war? Australia’s defence minister has announced the most comprehensive strategic review of our defence force in 35 years. This week we dive deep into the challenges that militaries like ours are facing as security threats ramp up. What needs to be done and can it be done quickly?

Alan Dupont, veteran defence analyst
Allan Behm, Director of the International and Security Affairs Program, The Australia Institute
Melissa Conley-Tyler, Program Lead, the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue.
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The Taiwan Test: How to Keep Democracy Alive in Asia

July 11, 2021

Australian Institute of International Affairs: For those with an interest in the Indo-Pacific, the political uncertainty and tension surrounding Taiwan – officially the Republic of China – is cause for constant debate. While Cross-Strait relations and the competing narratives between the mainland China and Taiwan continue to burgeon, analysts and observers describe the issues surrounding Taiwan, chiefly its political independence and national security as becoming increasingly “hotter”.
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Indo-pacific strategic futures dialogue and simulation + next generation leaders workshop

August 12, 2019

Alan Dupont participated in Session 1: Regional Perspectives on Indo-Pacific Strategic Objectives

There is an emerging consensus among US allies and partners that a free, open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific is in the interests of all nations and must be preserved. Beyond this broad vision for regional order, however, are a wide range of differences in national priorities, proximate interests, views about rules, norms and values, and geographic considerations. How do key regional countries define Indo-Pacific strategy and its objectives? Read more

Entrenched Islamic State ‘caliphate’ in Philippines could bring chemical, suicide attacks to Australian cities

March 19, 2018

There are growing signs that Islamic State cells are preparing for violent insurgencies in southern Philippines to build a prized so-called caliphate on Australia’s backdoor.

The establishment of an entrenched caliphate in the Philippines, at worst, brings the risk of suicide bombers and chemical weapons attacks in Australian cities, a leading Australian expert has warned. Read more

Islamic State push to establish South East Asian caliphate threatens Australia

July 23, 2017

Quote: “Dr Dupont, chief executive of strategic risk consultancy The Cognoscenti Group, said the scale of the Marawi uprising, which has seen almost 100 troops, 50 civilians and 400 terrorists killed showed it was significantly planned and financed. He said whether it would be enough to inspire other uprisings was still unknown but a groundswell of Islamic conservatism made for fertile ground for fundamentalist teachings and ultimately extremism.”
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This time, ignoring North Korean nuclear weapons is no longer an option

July 8, 2017

With exquisite political timing, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un effectively gatecrashed this week’s G20 summit and US Independence Day celebrations by test-firing his country’s first genuinely intercontinental ballistic missile on July 4.
We have become so used to Kim’s provocative missile diplomacy and the impotency of the international response it’s easy to dismiss this latest missile test as likely to elicit nothing more than the customary ineffectual hand-wringing.
But this time it’s different.
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Australia Joins Philippines’ Fight Against Islamic State-Linked Militants

June 23, 2017

“It’s pretty clear they’re trying to emulate what ISIS has done in the Middle East,” said Alan Dupont, a strategic analyst at the Lowy Institute, a foreign-policy think tank in Sydney. “Marawi would be a magnet for disaffected people in Southeast Asia, including in Australia.” Australia has more at stake in the Philippines conflict than the U.S., Dr. Dupont added, because it is much closer.
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Threat of the hermit kingdom

February 18, 2017

The assassination of Kim Jong-nam, half-brother of the unhinged North Korean despot Kim Jong-un, adds a dangerous dimension to deepening concerns about a seriously deranged regime in Pyongyang that is increasingly fanatical, fragile and has nuclear weapons. Read more