The battle for Aleppo is over. The Assad regime and its Russian, Iranian and Shia paramilitary allies have achieved victory.
The process of evacuation of civilians and rebels is yet to be completed. Syrian oppositionists are alleging that pro-regime militias are committing atrocities in the conquered areas. The UN accused pro-regime forces of summarily executing 82 civilians. But while important, these details cannot obscure the main point. Rebel-controlled eastern Aleppo, which held for four years, has now ceased to exist.
What does this mean for Syria and the further direction of the Syrian war?
First and most obviously, there is no longer any prospect of the Assad regime being removed by force. In effect, any such possibility ended on September 30, 2015, with the entry of Russian airpower into the war. The rebellion had and has nothing in its arsenal capable of challenging the might of a world class air force. From the moment of the Russian entry, Assad’s survival was assured. With the destruction of rebel eastern Aleppo, the regime’s ascendancy is sealed.