Barack Obama’s absence from East Asia’s two seminal economic and political meetings last week has triggered another bout of declinist commentary and regional hand wringing about the loss of US power and credibility which, if accurate, has serious implications for Australia’s alliance with the US.
The obvious question to be asked is whether Australia should continue to invest so much of its political and military capital in a country that appears unable to govern itself or meet its declared commitments, especially in Asia. If the US pivot to Asia is dead in the water, then rather than hedging against Chinese power perhaps we would be better off hedging against US impotence.
Declinists have a powerful case. There is no doubt Obama’s non-attendance at APEC and the East Asia Summit has done the US considerable harm, reinforcing the image of a once powerful nation teetering on the edge of a seemingly unbridegable fiscal cliff and a partisan political divide.