China, a wounded tiger, could lash out

September 14, 2015

The Chinese Communist Party’s power has long rested on four pillars: economic growth, nationalism, repression and communist ideology. The last of these withered away almost entirely as China liberalized its economy, with slogans such as “Long live the invincible Marxism-Leninism theory” replaced by “To get rich is glorious.” Now the first pillar is unstable too. Read more

The Sleeper Issue of 2016 Is China

May 11, 2015

As the long march to the presidential nomination begins, most of the likely Republican contenders are talking tough on foreign policy and criticizing the Obama administration for its evident failings in handling Russia, Iran, Syria, and the Islamic State and other Islamist extremists. Read more

A U.S. ‘Solarium Project’ for China

April 26, 2015

The Obama administration is evidently divided over how to respond to provocative Chinese actions in cyberspace and the South China Sea. Intelligence community leaders warn that unless the U.S. retaliates, it will continue to face damaging computer network attacks of the sort China appears to have carried out against the Office of Personnel Management. Yet the administration has refused even to identify China as the culprit in the theft of over 20 million sensitive personal files. Read more

Is “Regular Warfare” Dead?

April 6, 2015

Hugh White’s considered response to the questions I posed in our recent exchange in the Lowy Interpreter on the fundamentals of Australian defense strategy prods me to elaborate on my previous arguments as well as to make some counterpoints. Read more

Why Australia needs full-spectrum defence

March 23, 2015

Given he was the principal author of the 2000 Defence White Paper, it is reassuring to know that Hugh White agrees with me that Australian strategic policy needs a rethink, even if he is not persuaded by all of my prescriptions. So, in the spirit of a full and frank debate about what needs to be done, let me respond to Hugh’s observations and counterpoints to my Lowy Analysis paper, Full-Spectrum Defence: Re-thinking the Fundamentals of Australian Defence Strategy. Read more

Australia’s importance as US ally increasing, says professor

March 16, 2015

United States security strategy is changing and how its allies deal with this change raises multiple issues Australia must now consider.

At the recent KPMG/AFR defence and national security roundtable, Alan Dupont, professor of international security at the University of New South Wales, strongly defined the new security challenge for Australia and the US. Read more

Asia emerges as center of gravity in the international system

October 25, 2014

As Henry Kissinger and others have observed, Asia is emerging as the center of gravity in the international system. The rapid economic growth that began with Japan during the 1960s spread to South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the 1970s; China in the 1980s; and India in the 1990s. As has become indisputable, throughout history, prosperity brings power in its train. Read more