World feels the chill of another cold war

May 23, 2020

Op-ed by Paul Kelly, Editor-at-Large for The Australian, in response to The Center for Independent Studies, Analysis Paper 8, May 2020, MITIGATING THE NEW COLD WAR: Managing US-China trade, tech and geopolitical conflict, by Alan Dupont

Four months into the COVID-19 crisis, the world and Australia confront a worse problem — the ­descent into a version of cold war between the US and China, many years in the making but now apparently sealed in the great-power animosity unleashed by the virus.

The virus will be conquered by scientific, rational and logical public policy. But such elements are absent on the US-China front where Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have tipped each other into a confrontation neither seems willing to abandon, with escalation the most likely result.

The coronavirus pandemic that recognises neither nationality nor ideology should have brought the leading powers into co-operation but the opposite has happened — the threat to humanity has exposed the true descent in the US-China crisis. The warning lights are flashing on emergency.
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China’s bid to control the internet

May 16, 2020

Experts say China’s New IP ‘should frighten us all’. And then there’s the undersea cable wars…

Imagine trying to manage the impact of the coronavirus without the internet and a robust telecommunications sector. If we couldn’t communicate and transact in real time, economic activity would grind to a halt and social contact would be even more difficult. And there would be no COVIDSafe app, an important tool in the government’s recovery strategy.

Australia is already more wired than most nations, and the digital world is expanding rapidly as the coronavirus has forced business, schools, universities and government services online. Videoconferencing platforms such as Zoom are booming and the much maligned National Broadband Network finally is starting to realise its potential. But if these networks were to become untrustworthy or disrupted for any length of time it would be hard for the country to function effectively.
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Shifting our focus to the north is timely, but it will come with costs

January 30, 2020

The government’s strategy for managing Australia’s turbulent ­security environment and building economic resilience is taking shape. Northern Australia Minister Matt Canavan’s declaration that Canberra will overhaul its northern development agenda to boost regional ties is the latest in a series of incremental changes designed to better integrate national security and development policy. Read more

Australia Beijing political warfare

Australia must stand strong against Beijing’s political warfare

January 10, 2020

China’s extraordinary growth as an economic and military power has been a defining development for Australia. But managing our future relationship with an increasing­ly assertive and authorit­arian China will require a reassessment of our assumptions about the nature of the Chinese political system and a willingness to learn from past mistakes.
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On China at Consilium Conference

September 1, 2019

Alan Dupont presented on China at Consilium a conference held by the Centre for International Studies, one of Australia’s leading think tanks, at Byron Bay from 29 August to 1 September.
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A new type of war at our door

August 10, 2019

The defence community has begun an important generational debate about the strategy, posture and structure the Australian Defence Force needs in response to the most challenging regional security environment we have faced since World War II.

Anyone who doubts that the long peace in Asia has come to a precipitate end need only scan the latest news to see the confluence of geopolitical disturbances that has turned our once tranquil region into a combustible zone of conflict and strategic ­rivalry.

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Australia must not lose East Timor to China

July 2, 2019

Scott Morrison has quickly put flesh on his Pacific step-up strategy. With the US, Japan, New Zealand and now France supportive, the Prime Minister has assembled an impressive coalition of democracies that may soon include Britain. Morrison knows that effective co-operation between Australia and the other Pacific powers will make it more difficult for China to entrench itself in our backyard and exploit the economic vulnerabilities of small Pacific island states. Read more

Crackdown on Chinese tech giant Huawei has global ramifications

June 8, 2019

Cold War 2.0 is heating up as Washington continues to push back against predatory Chinese behaviour widely perceived in the US as an existential threat to the country’s technological pre-eminence and national security.

In a devastating blow to Huawei likened to a digital missile salvo, the Trump administration last month effectively barred the Chinese leviathan from access to the US telecommunications system and difficult-to-replace technology. Read more

Trade alliances caught in crossfire as the giants clash

April 5, 2019

Will they or won’t they? The gyrations of Theresa May’s discombobulated government have dominated the headlines as British parliamentarians agonise over whether to leave the EU or remain. But the same question also is being asked of trade negotiations between the US and China as the two countries inch their way towards a deal that many believe will determine the trajectory of the most important relationship in the world.
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